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Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan
- Erik Pihl, Eva Alfredsson, Magnus Bengtsson, Kathryn J. Bowen, Vanesa Cástan Broto, Kuei Tien Chou, Helen Cleugh, Kristie Ebi, Clea M. Edwards, Eleanor Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Mukesh Gupta, Alexandra R. Harrington, Katie Hayes, Bronwyn M. Hayward, Sophie R. Hebden, Thomas Hickmann, Gustaf Hugelius, Tatiana Ilyina, Robert B. Jackson, Trevor F. Keenan, Ria A. Lambino, Sebastian Leuzinger, Mikael Malmaeus, Robert I. McDonald, Celia McMichael, Clark A. Miller, Matteo Muratori, Nidhi Nagabhatla, Harini Nagendra, Cristian Passarello, Josep Penuelas, Julia Pongratz, Johan Rockström, Patricia Romero-Lankao, Joyashree Roy, Adam A. Scaife, Peter Schlosser, Edward Schuur, Michelle Scobie, Steven C. Sherwood, Giles B. Sioen, Jakob Skovgaard, Edgardo A. Sobenes Obregon, Sebastian Sonntag, Joachim H. Spangenberg, Otto Spijkers, Leena Srivastava, Detlef B. Stammer, Pedro H. C. Torres, Merritt R. Turetsky, Anna M. Ukkola, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Christina Voigt, Chadia Wannous, Mark D. Zelinka
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- Journal:
- Global Sustainability / Volume 4 / 2021
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 27 January 2021, e5
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Non-technical summary
We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments.
Technical summaryA synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations.
Social media summaryStronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
Introducing the White Noise task in childhood: associations between speech illusions and psychosis vulnerability
- M. K. Rimvall, L. Clemmensen, A. Munkholm, C. U. Rask, J. T. Larsen, A. M. Skovgaard, C. J. P. Simons, J. van Os, P. Jeppesen
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- Journal:
- Psychological Medicine / Volume 46 / Issue 13 / October 2016
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 22 July 2016, pp. 2731-2740
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Background
Auditory verbal hallucinations (AVH) are common during development and may arise due to dysregulation in top-down processing of sensory input. This study was designed to examine the frequency and correlates of speech illusions measured using the White Noise (WN) task in children from the general population. Associations between speech illusions and putative risk factors for psychotic disorder and negative affect were examined.
MethodA total of 1486 children aged 11–12 years of the Copenhagen Child Cohort 2000 were examined with the WN task. Psychotic experiences and negative affect were determined using the Kiddie-SADS-PL. Register data described family history of mental disorders. Exaggerated Theory of Mind functioning (hyper-ToM) was measured by the ToM Storybook Frederik.
ResultsA total of 145 (10%) children experienced speech illusions (hearing speech in the absence of speech stimuli), of which 102 (70%) experienced illusions perceived by the child as positive or negative (affectively salient). Experiencing hallucinations during the last month was associated with affectively salient speech illusions in the WN task [general cognitive ability: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–3.93]. Negative affect, both last month and lifetime, was also associated with affectively salient speech illusions (aOR 2.01, 95% CI 1.05–3.83 and aOR 1.79, 95% CI 1.11–2.89, respectively). Speech illusions were not associated with delusions, hyper-ToM or family history of mental disorders.
ConclusionsSpeech illusions were elicited in typically developing children in a WN-test paradigm, and point to an affective pathway to AVH mediated by dysregulation in top-down processing of sensory input.
Psychotic experiences and hyper-theory-of-mind in preadolescence – a birth cohort study
- L. Clemmensen, J. van Os, M. Drukker, A. Munkholm, M. K. Rimvall, M. Væver, C. U. Rask, A. A. Bartels-Velthuis, A. M. Skovgaard, P. Jeppesen
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- Journal:
- Psychological Medicine / Volume 46 / Issue 1 / January 2016
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 08 September 2015, pp. 87-101
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Background.
Knowledge on the risk mechanisms of psychotic experiences (PE) is still limited. The aim of this population-based study was to explore developmental markers of PE with a particular focus on the specificity of hyper-theory-of-mind (HyperToM) as correlate of PE as opposed to correlate of any mental disorder.
Method.We assessed 1630 children from the Copenhagen Child Cohort 2000 regarding PE and HyperToM at the follow-up at 11–12 years. Mental disorders were diagnosed by clinical ratings based on standardized parent-, teacher- and self-reported psychopathology. Logistic regression analyses were performed to test the correlates of PE and HyperToM, and the specificity of correlates of PE v. correlates of any Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV) mental disorder.
Results.Univariate analyses showed the following correlates of PE: familial psychiatric liability; parental mental illness during early child development; change in family composition; low family income; regulatory problems in infancy; onset of puberty; bullying; concurrent mental disorder; and HyperToM. When estimating the adjusted effects, only low family income, concurrent mental disorder, bullying and HyperToM remained significantly associated with PE. Further analyses of the specificity of these correlates with regard to outcome revealed that HyperToM was the only variable specifically associated with PE without concurrent mental disorder. Finally, HyperToM did not share any of the investigated precursors with PE.
Conclusions.HyperToM may have a specific role in the risk trajectories of PE, being specifically associated with PE in preadolescent children, independently of other family and child risk factors associated with PE and overall psychopathology at this age.
Picritic magmas and the Rum ultramafic complex, Scotland
- B. G. J. UPTON, A. C. SKOVGAARD, J. McCLURG, L. KIRSTEIN, M. CHEADLE, C. H. EMELEUS, W. J. WADSWORTH, A. E. FALLICK
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- Journal:
- Geological Magazine / Volume 139 / Issue 4 / July 2002
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 28 October 2002, pp. 437-452
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Three small picritic dykes, intruded at a late stage in the evolution of the Rum basic–ultra-basic complex, Inner Hebrides, shed new light on the nature of the magmas responsible for the main complex. The magmas are of transitional (mildly alkalic) type, generated by relatively small-fraction (6–7%) melting of a depleted mantle source. Melting is tentatively deduced to have commenced at ±100 km, straddling the garnet–spinel transition. Of the three samples, one (M9) is remarkable for the preservation of very primitive characteristics, with olivines of Fo93 containing highly aluminous spinels; these appear unique within the British Tertiary Volcanic Province. Sr, Nd and Pb isotopes indicate only minor ([les ]4%) contamination with Precambrian crustal lithologies, reflecting the rapidity of ascent of the magma batches. The Rum picrites have 187Os/188Os ratios and trace element characteristics comparable to those of recent picrites from Iceland, suggesting minimal temporal change of the depleted parts of the Iceland plume over 60 Ma. Movements of the Long Loch Fault may have been instrumental in causing decompression melting of the spreading Iceland plume-head and facilitating ascent of the melts to near-surface levels.